National Prediction Month

It’s that time of year again. The news streams and industry publications are filled with forecasts, trends, prognostications and predictions of what the year holds for us – good and bad. I would argue that January is National Prediction Month.

2023 is one of those years when not all the signals point in the same direction. ELFA reports finding “Equipment Finance Industry Confidence Higher in January.” That’s true, but the Monthly Confidence Index – Equipment Finance Industry (MCI-EFI) is still down almost 15 points from a year ago. Overlay that with the facts that none of the executives surveyed think the economy will get better and that there’s a general consensus of a mild recession, and one is left with the question “Is the glass half full or half empty?”

My colleagues and I tend to think about the glass a little differently. Generally, the glass is half full, but that is a determination at a point in time. The more important question is “Is the glass filling up or becoming empty?” The good thing about this approach, predicting the future of the glass, is that we believe we can have an impact on that future if we study the circumstances and take appropriate actions. Every recession has winners and losers, but every recession is different and this one might be too.

The economy may have rain clouds on the horizon, but rain can also fill up the glass if we are prepared.

Scott Nelson, president and CDO, Tamarack